Of Old Wines & New Bottles

After the BJP was re-routed in General Elections 2009 there appeared a consensus among the supporters that nothing short of a reinvention is required to not just stem the slide but to remain relevant enough in India's political landscape. Everyone seemed to have a prescription for it. After taking flak from both supporters and detractors and all and sundry as well, the party went into an introspection mode amidst expectations of reemerging as just more than an old wine in a new bottle. The party was literally forced to go back to the drawing board. For the party that once thought of itself as a replacement of Congress, the difference in level of confidence they had on themselves and the voting public had on them turned out to be wider than the worst case scenario they had imagined. However, after apparently spending some time at the drawing boards the party seems to have reemerged. So where does the BJP stands today?


The converted would like to point towards the developments of the last few months during which BJP appears to have improved their popularity also reflected in some state level elections notably Bihar vis a vis Congress that is still reeling under a series of scams and failures that allegedly involve some of the biggest heists ever, involving mind numbing figures and all round failure at governance and leadership leading to near paralysis in dealing with issues of maoists, separatists, telangana, inflation, ministers turning their ministries into virtual ATMs...you name it.


But the ones not yet converted have a point when they say that the party's turnaround seems to be more due to Congress doing everything wrong rather than BJP itself doing anything right to write home about. The decisiveness in dealing with state level differences earlier displayed in Uttarakhand and Rajasthan seems to have petered out in Karnataka, the change at the top level was limited to appointment of new leaders of the houses and the President, and barring may be a couple of spokespersons like N Seetharaman, no new faces have emerged at the central level, so do we really have a new party under a new leadership or do we more or less have the same old wine? we may not be required to wait till 2014 to get a definitive answer to the question as more challenging state elections to be held can themselves provide an answer, but then we can always wait till all doubts are laid to rest anyway.


(Picture courtesy daylife.com)

Fine Print On The Wall

The news of a recent recruitment rally conducted by the Armed Forces in the Ganderbal area of J&K that witnessed a huge response where around 9000 young men braved sleet and snow to appear for the test has evoked interesting reactions from the observers including on twitter ranging from the disinterested ones calling it a "No big deal" to the ecstatic. Whatever be our reactions, they obviously need jobs and the need to address this issue post haste can not be over emphasized. Much would depend upon how the govt reacts to it.


The obvious knee jerk reaction in such a scenario especially in disturbed areas in India has traditionally been to create more govt jobs or at least declare intentions of doing so and give an impression of doing ones best to solve the unemployment problem. IMO it's time we changed our approach to solving this problem. Here are some alternatives to consider if not done already:


Ignite entrepreneurial spirit in the state and help them create jobs by themselves. Create special economic zones wherever possible, like Jammu to begin with, make available micro finance to them, give them tax breaks. With time big ticket investments would follow. Facilitate their participation in trade fairs across the world and help create a demand for their produce. Make permanent exhibition grounds for them in Delhi and Mumbai to make it convenient for big ticket buyers. Build container terminals and tune their logistics with global practice.
Start the damn railway up to wherever possible and reduce their logistics cost to help them remain competitive even in faraway markets. Use the railway for purely logistics if safety is a concern.


And finally implement all of these in all the states!


(Picture courtesy Washington Post)

Toying With A Dangerous Idea

Dangerous doesn't even begin to describe an idea that leads to or suggests India's balkanization. Am i being paranoid? Yes, and i think if we are not paranoid about it, we will keep suffering crazies suggesting it off and on like Goebbels in important discourses as well.


India does have freedom of expression although much of this freedom is available only in limited forums mostly apart from the so called mainstream. The mainstream media on the other hand tries hard to put on a facade of allowing space to even non conforming points of views even if it is only for those views that fits "their" mold of a dissenting voice.


So we are supposed to give a sympathetic ear to these non conforming points of views and also accept their victory in these make belief "debates". We are frequently made to read in the mainstream newspapers, magazines and hear them on prime time tv debates - their contention that it's good for humanity's sake to concede to Separatists in Kashmir, Maoists in the rest of India and some others of their pet subjects. It's high time we debated the consequences of the "ideas" that these liberals want us to toy with.


Do they seriously think that conceding to Separatists and Maoists will not have a domino effect in the rest of India least of all North East? will they be there to somehow "magically" prevent that from happening. What happened in Darjeeling after Telangana was promised is just an indicator. And when that happens what will happen to "democracy" in the balkanized states? When India divided into three parts after independence the other two came on the verge of being failed states ruled by tin pot dictators, if not became one. What will happen to the Armed Forces? Will all states get their piece and start settling out inter state disputes which exists even today with it? Will China and Pakistan be able to resist the temptation of fishing in troubled waters, like China trying to annex at least the North East while it can, and Pakistan trying to annex some of it's own to add to it's "strategic depth"?


Being unreasonably paranoid may not be the best attitude but dangerous ideas need to be emphatically refuted to prevent reinforcement of whatever agenda driven world-view being pushed by some. What do you think about it?


(Picture courtesy Economic Times)

League of Nations

The Egypt upheaval has once again highlighted that the world, or at least the league of powerful nations consisting primarily of US, Western Europe and some other wealthy and powerful countries is an important stakeholder, or at least considers itself to be one, in the politics of the third world countries, and is definitely concerned about what kind of political system is being followed, whether there is democracy? and if there is an authoritarian political system then in that case who gets to be in power? Let's get real, given a "choice" they would definitely want a "friendly" guy who can act in their interest if need be, to head the respective governments in just about every third world country they can.
It's difficult to say how much influence this "outside" community wields over the politics in third world countries, may be it's different in each country, and could lie somewhere between absolute control and no control at all for each of them. Where does India stands? Well, any guess is as good as any other.
Having said that, we may "like" to think of ourselves as an absolute sovereign republic which doesn't let any one, including Uncle Sam, to have any say whatsoever in how we form our government. Is that wishful thinking? may be may be not. But let's not live under the impression that it's not being tried. We can't afford to let go of our sovereign rights or drop our guard can we?

The Quest For Parity

When India became free it was almost like start of a voyage into uncharted territory. Not that we were alone, there were other erstwhile colonies for company and the experiences of the few existing democratic republics albeit colonizers themselves like US for e.g. to assist navigation, the goal was to develop into like one of those existing democracies. No stone was left unturned at least in the initial years in it's quest for parity, like adopting the class benchmark constitution to begin with. India was initially high on idealism and looked at itself as an initiator of a democratic new world order.


Though India was never without it's share of flaws. Congress, the predominant party allowed the democratic system to retain it's flaws and no credible alternative was allowed to share the political landscape neither within itself nor without, the efforts to curtail the opposition increased with time in ruthlessness and were often below the belt as well, resulting in subversion of just about every institution including judiciary and media.


How long will India deny a less flawed democracy to itself where not only competing political parties are allowed to share the political landscape as a legitimate right besides facilitating necessary checks and balances, but also merit and not inheritance becomes the criteria for getting power to govern?

The Right Balance

Indian Right in general and BJP in particular gets it terribly wrong when it thinks that it's all about ideas, vision, debates, other such impressive stuffs and little else. So if it thinks that if it can come up with a high sounding idea, a great looking vision document or win debates on ELM it will get to form the government in Lutyen's Delhi? You may be forgiven for laughing at it.

And the left gets it right by almost exclusively focusing on populism – free rice, free TV, NREGA and other such dole outs. Pioneered by NT Ramarao in early 80s and later adopted and perfected by others, political parties have routinely used dole outs to win elections almost without fail over and over again. Simply put, it’s about "giving" fish, not "teaching" how to fish.


Despite seeing it all first hand, if the Right has still not been able to crack the code, then should they be in the race at all? NDA may have been a missed opportunity for BJP to become all things to all people, however they seem to have made amends in some states which they've managed to retain. It's "nice" to have a party in India that give prominence to ideas and vision, but it needs to find a balance between ideology and populism if it really wants to make a comeback.

What Is Our Best Alternative?

Negotiations are supposed to be an integral part of diplomacy. It’s but natural for two countries to find themselves across a negotiating table quite often. Whenever India and Pakistan sit across or for that matter any two sides go for negotiations, they carry their BATNA (the best alternative to a negotiated agreement) along, or that’s what we presume.


Due to the tight lipped nature of the Indo Pak dialogues, we can only guess what the both side's best alternatives are. The best alternative for Pakistan appears to be at least two pronged, one, going on a diplomatic offensive by leveraging it's closeness with US and China and applying pressure on India directly or indirectly to give ground, and two, carry on with it's bleed India strategy through it's not so tacit support to terrorists and separatists. That part is generally well understood, what is not, is the best alternative the Indian counterparts carry or should carry themselves with.


The best alternative for India appears to be a diplomatic offensive in the form of international pressure on Pakistan primarily through leveraging it's economic strength, neutralizing Pak's advantage of it's affinity with China and also US, and effectively countering Pak supported terrorism and separatism.


Usefulness of the track two variety in complementing regular diplomacy in our quest for strategic national objectives is debatable, but the kind of panelists chosen to represent India at such meets, like a US citizen, or a dubious power broker masquerading as journo, or an attention seeking airhead, is unfathomable. What are we trying to do?

What's With That Smirk?

History has an uncanny habit of repeating itself untill it is convinced that everyone has read and understood the fineprint on the wall. Like it did in Egypt refreshing the memories of Anwar Sadat's assasination. It's being said that since he came to power, Hosni Mubarak has remained mostly invisible in his own country, except on television or in parliament. May be he was largely relying on secondary sources for feedback from the displeased Egyptians and apparently failed to foresee this upheaval. It was an epic failure of leadership, such an upheaval wouldn't have been possible without a gross disconnect between the people and the leadership.


So as expected, true to our disposition, we are pointing towards lack of democracy to the plight of Egypt and how the "Indian way" is just what the world, or at least the third world needs. Obviousely it's easy to judge from a distance with the famed smirk firmly in place. Infact it's "we" who need a reality check, and fast.


There appears to be a serious communication gap if not a total disconnect between at least a major section of the people and the establishment. The establishment's "inertia of the status quo" is understandable but even the media that is supposed to act like a watchdog is acting more like a lapdog looking for crumbs. The pretty picture of the robust "Indian way" may be more due to a rosy prism than hard facts.

Cheeni Kum

China has always been an enigma shrouded in mystery. What drives its existence? From a layman's perspective China is a humongous developing country with a humongous population that is not feeding off western aid but cocking a snook at them. All of them.


China has done rather well to keep its population gainfully employed, but just to do that it needs to flood the world with it's produce causing havoc in all other manufacturing facilities, coupled with the paranoid frame of mind symbolic of an era long gone, it has found itself ill at ease with just about everyone it does business with. The only friend it recognizes is perhaps the ones who qualify as an enemy's enemy. Probably it also looks at most relationships as a zero sum game.


It's tough being India, having to deal with China along with a Pakistan induced migraine to begin with, hope we realize the gravity of this.

"Small" Problems

Small businesses are said to be a Major Driver of any economy, and one of the biggest Job Providers, I am sure India is no exception. Despite that government policies are hardly as Friendly to small businesses as they are to big ones, most obvious reason IMO being that small businesses can hardly afford the services of lobbyists required to tilt policy making to favor them :p. But jokes apart, following is an attempt to assemble the problems, or at least the major ones, that are affecting small businesses in India.


Funding, but naturally, remains a problem. Banks do not provide funding till a small business has at least three audited balance sheets and ITR, and fat ones at that. Entrepreneurs are expected to finance their venture through their own resources. Even non banking financial institutions aren't much better either. Citing an example, if an entrepreneur wants to buy a commercial vehicle for starting a car hire service, he can't buy it in installments unless he can produce like 5 commercial vehicle registration certificates. Though funding remains an issue as is ought to be, but it's not the biggest of all problems.


Bigger problem is the well entrenched Crony Capitalism. Most small BtoB enterprises depend on contracts from large companies. Let alone public sector, cronyism is well entrenched even in private companies.


Another major problem is the absence of a one stop shop for Information with regards to legal compliances, forcing them to either pay through their nose to good CAs, consultants, lawyers etc. or make do with cheap sub-standard alternatives who end up complicating their problems even further.


Corruption being in our DNA, at all levels, is another problem that makes matters worse for small businesses already struggling to make ends meet.


Manpower related issues which is a topic in its own right and a major deterrent is another major problem for small businesses.


And these are just some of the problems that occupy a day in the life of small business. I bow to the quintessential Indian entrepreneur who still perseveres against all odds.

Watch Thy Neighbour

It's unfortunate that Pakistan is going through a low ebb. It's struggling to contain terrorism that is striking at will, besides struggling to "convince" the world that she is doing enough to contain it in the first place! The fact that Pakistan nurtured and used them as a tool to achieve their strategic objectives of gaining and retaining "strategic depth" in Afghanistan and bleed India besides others isn't helping matters either.


Prima facie it appears that having pushed to the wall it's options are limited, but after a closer view things begin to change. The US led forces in Afghanistan is itself struggling to justify their presence to their "management" on the face of mounting casualty, cost and plain failure in reaching their stated objectives even after investing so much capital - human or otherwise, they too are seeking a face saving exit from the region. In these circumstances Pakistan has offered to facilitate the "soft" exit, although it has enraged the jehadis but she has traded it off for the continued strategic alliance and the vital "aid" from US.


As far as India is concerned, it not only needs to keep a close watch on the developments inside Pakistan but also on the likely diplomatic offensive assisted by Pakistan's renewed alliance with the US.

Green Is In

Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh makes news quite frequently, just a few days back it was for the approval given to POSCO Steel Plant in Orissa, and a few days before that, for the approval given to Lavasa township and few days before that for pointing out the non approval to Adarsh Society and so forth.


For the "Classes", being Green is not an option, so we see their "Outrage" whenever they see a picture of mining being carried out anywhere, if they have their way all mining would come to a grinding halt immediately, but i bet they would also be the first to call the authorities to complain about load shedding if they face one. There was an outrage when Pune authorities proposed purchasing 200 Air conditioned buses to provide comfortable commuting for the public, they pointed out the would be damage to the environment, clearly, when we talk of increased carbon foot print due to air conditioning, we exclude the ones in our home and car! and just because we see pictures of mines in mainstream media we need not get into Pavlovian Outrage Mode


Of course there is a trade-off and some Environment clearances for mining and other such environment damaging activities are required to be given, but what is needed is transparency. For example, why, and using what criteria, environment clearance are denied and approved to mega projects like Navi Mumbai Airport, Posco etc. is shrouded in opacity. IMO that needs to change.

Introduction

We are witnessing the unraveling of new age media like twitter, it's impact is also being felt in countries where the traditional media was found to be inadequate in providing a platform for all voices. The new age media filled the void and the nonconforming voices are making themselves heard with a vengeance. Though new age media has been able to step in to fill the inadequacies of traditional media in these countries to a great extent, however whether it has ushered in a culture of debate like it is in freer countries  is, well, debatable.

The disadvantage of twitter is that although it does initiates debates, but veers off leaving them unresolved to say the least, critics might add absence of "editorial filters" as well.

This blog is intended to be a platform for channelized debates and try to reach at logical conclusions like all debates are expected to.